Free MLB Picks & Predictions - Today's Best Expert MLB Bets (2024)

The Guardians have the best record in the majors but they have the struggling Carlos Carrasco on the mound tonight and their Statcast analytics indicate major regression at the plate. Carrasco has a 5.40 ERA with an OBA of .274 through 13 starts and Cleveland's lineup ranks dead last in the majors in xwOBACON (.341). The Orioles lead the majors in xwOBACON (.397) and their starter Grayson Rodriguez has allowed fewer than 2.5 runs in 10 of 13 starts.

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Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 2 hrs, 55 min ago.

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Manaea is having a mediocre year at best, pitching to a 4.22 expected ERA while surrendering a .250 opponent expected batting average. And while he is striking out a solid 24.1% of batters faced, he can lose his command at times. Manaea has a 9.6% walk rate, which ranks in the 31st percentile among MLB pitchers. It should come as no surprise that a team that features both Aaron Judge and Juan Soto leads MLB in walks. They are particularly tough against left-handed pitchers, leading the majors with an 11.3% walk rate. He's gone Over this number five times in his last 12 starts but the price and matchup has me firing on this bet.

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Andrew Caley - Pick Made 1 hrs, 2 min ago.

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This is a buy to -130. He’s facing a loaded LAD lineup that, even without Mookie Betts, is still a Top-3 offense over the last 30 days. Fedde is not a 3.08 ERA pitcher and I'm not sold that a move from South Korea to the MLB has improved him from anything more than a 4.50 ERA pitcher. He's faced some easy lineups of late that might be masking his overall performance. Regression is coming for Fedde who's projected for 16.4 outs on a mid-90s pitch count. This is a great price for a short outing vs. an elite offense.

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Josh Inglis - Pick Made 4 hrs, 15 min ago.

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It could be a short outing for Nelson. He is pitching to a 4.87 expected ERA and giving up a .289 expected batting average to opponents, both in the Bottom 17% of the league or worse. Nelson also has one of the lowest K-rates, striking out just 15.1% of batters faced. While Minnesota is hot right now. The Twins ranks third in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ in June and have the second-lowest K-rate, striking out just 17.4% of the time.Not only are we getting solid plus money here, but he’s landed below this number in eight of his 13 starts this season, including four of the last five overall.

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Andrew Caley - Pick Made 1 hrs, 4 min ago.

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Giants rookie Hayden Birdsong has been fast tracked to the majors following two unimpressive starts in Triple A because San Fran hasn't had an off day since June 13, and the rotation has been depleted by injuries requiring the bullpen to pitch an MLB-high 55.1 innings. I expect Birdsong to pitch deep into Wednesday's game, and his control issues setting the Chicago lineup to put runs on the board. The Cubs have underachieved offensively, and this is an opportunity to capitalize on a rookie making MLB debut.

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Neil Parker - Pick Made 4 hrs, 11 min ago.

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